An exciting day for projections nerds everywhere, as Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA projection system for 2017. While some people are getting excited or annoyed at the various win projections (lol Royals, 71 Wins…), I’ve been poring over the individual player projections to find the ones that PECOTA loves and hates. I’ve set the Steamer projections as my ‘baseline’, and I’ll use the Steamer PA and IP in both cases. Let’s do five of each. Here’s what I found (I’ll show the PECOTA projections below, and you can check them out side-by-side with Steamer at this link):
PECOTA Loves
Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Edwin Encarnacion | 585 | 34 | 85 | 97 | 3 | .273 |
Eugenio Suarez | 553 | 19 | 64 | 69 | 8 | .252 |
Billy Hamilton | 565 | 8 | 83 | 38 | 64 | .249 |
Keon Broxton | 526 | 18 | 73 | 57 | 33 | .229 |
Name | IP | W | SO | ERA | WHIP | SV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Felix Hernandez | 203 | 13 | 202 | 3.83 | 1.27 | 0 |
PECOTA Hates
Name | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Eric Thames | 552 | 16 | 59 | 64 | 7 | .238 |
Daniel Murphy | 559 | 13 | 60 | 66 | 7 | .288 |
Mike Moustakas | 557 | 17 | 65 | 61 | 1 | .247 |
Name | IP | W | SO | ERA | WHIP | SV |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Carlos Martinez | 199 | 11 | 179 | 4.18 | 1.31 | 0 |
Tyler Skaggs | 149 | 9 | 143 | 3.88 | 1.29 | 0 |
What does everyone think? Is Steamer more right on these players, or is PECOTA? Are these players you want or players you’re avoiding?
your bigz is high on most of the ‘hates’. All 3 hitters exactly. Is that something we should worry about? lol.
The current version of BIGz is based on Steamer, so that would make sense… haha. Will be doing an analysis soon of which projection systems were best last year and update accordingly.
Hi thanks ffor posting this