PECOTA released: Who do they like? Who do they hate?

An exciting day for projections nerds everywhere, as Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA projection system for 2017. While some people are getting excited or annoyed at the various win projections (lol Royals, 71 Wins…), I’ve been poring over the individual player projections to find the ones that PECOTA loves and hates. I’ve set the Steamer projections as my ‘baseline’, and I’ll use the Steamer PA and IP in both cases. Let’s do five of each. Here’s what I found (I’ll show the PECOTA projections below, and you can check them out side-by-side with Steamer at this link):

PECOTA Loves

Name PA HR R RBI SB AVG
Edwin Encarnacion 585 34 85 97 3 .273
Eugenio Suarez 553 19 64 69 8 .252
Billy Hamilton 565 8 83 38 64 .249
Keon Broxton 526 18 73 57 33 .229
Name IP W SO ERA WHIP SV
Felix Hernandez 203 13 202 3.83 1.27 0

 

PECOTA Hates

Name PA HR R RBI SB AVG
Eric Thames 552 16 59 64 7 .238
Daniel Murphy 559 13 60 66 7 .288
Mike Moustakas 557 17 65 61 1 .247
Name IP W SO ERA WHIP SV
Carlos Martinez 199 11 179 4.18 1.31 0
Tyler Skaggs 149 9 143 3.88 1.29 0

What does everyone think? Is Steamer more right on these players, or is PECOTA? Are these players you want or players you’re avoiding?

3 thoughts on “PECOTA released: Who do they like? Who do they hate?”

    1. The current version of BIGz is based on Steamer, so that would make sense… haha. Will be doing an analysis soon of which projection systems were best last year and update accordingly.

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