Rankings

Player Valuation Tip #6: Using aging curves for dynasty/keeper leagues

Player Valuation Tip #6: Using aging curves for dynasty/keeper leagues

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Draft with tiers
Tip #5: Using xFantasy, the xStats projection system

One of the most oft-discussed and most subjectively-answered fantasy baseball topics is “Who do I keep?” Fantasy baseball players intuitively understand the idea of aging, at least qualitatively. Older players are less valuable, given that their performance is more likely to decrease due to both injury and ineffectiveness. But how much is age worth, really?

Examining ATC, the composite projection system you've never heard of

FanGraphs threw me a real curveball this week, publishing a new projection system on their website that, to my knowledge, has never been publicly available before. Named "Average Total Cost", or ATC, this system is a composite projection that makes use of historic stats and several other projection sources, weighting each of them category-by-category based upon historical accuracy of each system in each category (described in full detail here by creator Ariel Cohen). Annoyingly, they have not made past years' projections available, so at this point it's hard to evaluate how accurate the system is! But, composite systems generally perform quite well, and so I've gone ahead and loaded this guy into the newest version of the Big Board and put it through its paces.

New Feature: Aging Curves (2016)

New Feature: Aging Curves (2016)

A question that tends to pop up around this time of year: “When does fantasy baseball season start?” Of course, we all know that fantasy baseball season never ends, especially for those of us in keeper and dynasty leagues. To wit, Brad Johnson’s “Keeper Questions” thread posted just yesterday at FanGraphs is now sitting at 350 comments and growing. As we all collectively count the days ‘til spring training and opening day, one of the most oft-discussed and most subjectively-answered topics is “Who do I keep?” Fantasy baseball players intuitively understand the idea of aging, at least qualitatively. Older players are less valuable, given that their performance is more likely to decrease due to both injury and ineffectiveness. But how much is age worth, really?

Ranking and Projections of Top 300 Players

Harper Wallbanger's rankings are generated using the official 2015 Big Board z-score generator built by yours truly. Follow @HarperWallbang on twitter for updates as this site gets rolling. Updated 01/23/16

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