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Player Valuation Tip #6: Use the best projection systems

Player Valuation Tip #6: Use the best projection systems

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Customize your Projections
Tip #5: Draft with tiers

Entering now into part six of my preseason player valuation series, we arrive at one of the more important decisions of the preseason: deciding which projection system(s) to use. As a testament to how important this is, people have been asking me about this piece for weeks - wait no longer!

 

Player Valuation Tip #1: Know where player values come from

Player Valuation Tip #1: Know where player values come from

I throw around the terms "z-score", "SGP", and "Points" fairly liberally here on the Harper Wallbanger blog. Fantasy baseball loves its jargon. All of these terms describe systems used to assign player values when generating rankings or auction prices. But if you're not a hardcore spreadsheet wizard, you might be wondering what the differences actually are in how these are calculated. Especially given that the Big Board allows you to choose any of the three systems, it's time to bring some clarity to this situation! Today is part one of the 2018 Big Board Player Valuation Series: "Where do player values come from?" 

Player Valuation Tip #7: Use the best projection systems

Player Valuation Tip #7: Use the best projection systems

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Draft with tiers
Tip #5: Use xFantasy, the xStats projection system
Tip #6: Use aging curves for keeper/dynasty leagues

Entering now into part seven of my preseason player valuation series, we arrive at one of the more important decisions of the preseason: deciding which projection system(s) to use. As a testament to how important this is, people have been asking me about this piece for weeks - wait no longer!

 

Player Valuation Tip #6: Using aging curves for dynasty/keeper leagues

Player Valuation Tip #6: Using aging curves for dynasty/keeper leagues

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Draft with tiers
Tip #5: Using xFantasy, the xStats projection system

One of the most oft-discussed and most subjectively-answered fantasy baseball topics is “Who do I keep?” Fantasy baseball players intuitively understand the idea of aging, at least qualitatively. Older players are less valuable, given that their performance is more likely to decrease due to both injury and ineffectiveness. But how much is age worth, really?

Can xFantasy beat the projections?

Last month, I introduced the xFantasy system to these venerable electronic pages, in which I attempted to translate Andrew Perpetua's xStats data for 2016 into fantasy stats. The original idea was just to find a way to do that translation, but I noted back then that the obvious next step was to look at whether xFantasy was predictive. Throughout last season, I frequently found myself looking at players who were performing below their projection, but matching their xStats production, or vice versa, and pondering whether I should trust the xStats or the projections. Could xStats do a better of job of reacting quickly to small sample sizes, and therefore 'beat' the projections? Today, I'll attempt to figure that out. By a few different measures, Steamer reliably shows up at the top of the projection accuracy lists these days, and so in testing out xFantasy, I'm going to pit it against Steamer to see whether we can beat the best there is using xStats.