Analysis

Calculating better auction prices with "Pre-Inflation"

Calculating better auction prices with "Pre-Inflation"

This phenomenon of inflation at higher ends, deflation at lower ends, is commonly accounted for by most draft softwares (including the Big Board) by calculating how much money is left vs. how much player-value is left, and adjusting values accordingly. But when the first player is put up to bid (and the 2nd, 3rd, etc.), you have no idea how much inflation is going to show up in the draft. That means that if you adhere strictly to your $ values, you will ALWAYS miss the first X number of players auctioned - let's say, the top 20 or so. It can also make calculating Keeper values very difficult. Have you been there? I know I have.

Player Valuation Tip #6: Use the best projection systems

Player Valuation Tip #6: Use the best projection systems

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Customize your Projections
Tip #5: Draft with tiers

Entering now into part six of my preseason player valuation series, we arrive at one of the more important decisions of the preseason: deciding which projection system(s) to use. As a testament to how important this is, people have been asking me about this piece for weeks - wait no longer!

 

ZiPS released: Who do they like? Who do they not?

ZiPS released: Who do they like? Who do they not?

The ATC projection system was released earlier this week on FanGraphs, and much like my post for PECOTA, I wanted to take a look at who they like/dislike. I've set the Steamer projection system as my 'baseline', as they're the earliest-released and most-trusted system, and I'll use the Big Board's PA and IP in both cases. Let's do five of each. Here's what I found (I'll show the ATC projections below, and you can check them out side-by-side with Steamer at this link):

ATC released: Who do they like? Who do they not?

ATC released: Who do they like? Who do they not?

The ATC projection system was released earlier this week on FanGraphs, and much like my post for PECOTA, I wanted to take a look at who they like/dislike. I've set the Steamer projection system as my 'baseline', as they're the earliest-released and most-trusted system, and I'll use the Big Board's PA and IP in both cases. Let's do five of each. Here's what I found (I'll show the ATC projections below, and you can check them out side-by-side with Steamer at this link):

PECOTA released: Who do they like? Who do they not?

PECOTA released: Who do they like? Who do they not?

An exciting day for projections nerds everywhere, as Baseball Prospectus has released their PECOTA projection system for 2018. While some people are getting excited or annoyed at the various win projections, I've been poring over the individual player projections to find the ones that PECOTA loves and hates. I've set the Steamer projection system as my 'baseline', as they're the earliest-released and most-trusted system, and I'll use the Big Board's PA and IP in both cases. Let's do five of each. Here's what I found (I'll show the PECOTA projections below, and you can check them out side-by-side with Steamer at this link)