FanGraphs Community

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Draft with tiers

Back in December, I introduced “xFantasy” through a series of blog entries over at the FanGraphs Community blog. At its inception, xFantasy was a system based on xStats that integrated hitters’ xAVG, xOBP, and xISO in order to predict expected fantasy production (HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG). The underlying models are put together into an embedded “Triple Slash Converter” in Part 2. Part 3 compares the predictive value of xFantasy (and therefore xStats) vs. Steamer and historic stats, ultimately finding that for players under 26, xStats are indeed MORE predictive than Steamer! Those three pieces served as a starting point for what would eventually be included in this year’s Big Board as the xFantasy projection system, which has since been covertly expanded to pitchers, translating scFIP, xBACON, xOBA, xK% and xBB% into xFantasy pitcher stats (more info coming soon). Until now, I’ve included it in the Board without much in the way of explanation, so today is my first stab at that, with the hopes of also offering some recommendation of how fantasy players might apply xFantasy in their efforts to prepare for upcoming drafts this spring.