The ATC projection system was released earlier this week on FanGraphs, and much like my post for PECOTA, I wanted to take a look at who they like/dislike. I've set the Steamer projection system as my 'baseline', as they're the earliest-released and most-trusted system, and I'll use the Big Board's PA and IP in both cases. Let's do five of each. Here's what I found (I'll show the ATC projections below, and you can check them out side-by-side with Steamer at this link):
On the 'like' side, first up is Pham, and in this case I am fully with ATC, as Pham put up a real breakout season last year (we'll forgive him for getting picked off by Jon Lester). Cozart and Taylor were also nice breakouts, although ATC is a little bit too excited about their potential batting AVGs. I'm projecting similar numbers for those guys otherwise, with a .260 AVG for Cozart and .270 AVG for Taylor. Then the two pitchers - Steamer HATES Bundy for reasons I don't really understand. They project him to give up a 1.74 HR/9 next year! I'll side with ATC. Steamer hates Clevinger, too, but ATC is a little too excited. 16 wins is nuts! I'll pencil in Clevinger for something in between the two, a 4 ERA with 1.35 WHIP.
Last year, I noticed that ATC weights the most recent season a bit too heavily, and so it's no surprise to see some guys in this list (Machado, Odor, Miggy) that had down years in '17. Conversely, Puig and Stanton show up after good '17 seasons, so it's not a hard and fast rule of recency bias. Stanton shows up here after also showing up in the PECOTA list... I think what we've actually found is that Steamer's projection for Stanton is way too high! For Machado, it's all about the BABIP, which should easily bounce back this year (as Steamer projects). I'll stick with Steamer. I'm halfway between ATC and Steamer on Puig, with the main difference being his batting AVG. Steamer sees him posting a .282, his highest batting AVG since '14, while ATC gives a more conservative .270. I'm saying .275. Odor had a ROUGH '17, and ATC sees that continuing. I'm not as optimistic as Steamer, but I'm closer to them on Odor. Finally, Miggy... have we come up with a good projection system for player injuries yet? No? Damn. I think we have to bank on a potential return to health here, so while my projection for playing time is conservative, I like Steamer's projected line for him.
What does everyone think? Is Steamer more right on these players, or is ATC? Are these players you want or players you're avoiding?