Author name: HarperWallbanger

Calculating better auction prices with “The Value Curve”

This phenomenon of inflation at higher ends, deflation at lower ends, is commonly accounted for by most draft softwares (including the Big Board) by calculating how much money is left vs. how much player-value is left, and adjusting values accordingly. But when the first player is put up to bid (and the 2nd, 3rd, etc.), you have no idea how much inflation is going to show up in the draft. That means that if you adhere strictly to your $ values, you will ALWAYS miss the first X number of players auctioned – let’s say, the top 20 or so. It can also make calculating Keeper values very difficult. Have you been there? I know I have.

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Evaluating the 2018 Projection Systems

As we all hunker down with our spreadsheets in preparation for draft season, it’s time for my favorite yearly tradition – evaluating the projection systems! Forgive the somewhat abbreviated post in comparison to past years’ analyses, but trust that all the same meticulous analysis is here as always. The goals, as always, are to evaluate the best projection systems on a per-category basis for the purposes of fantasy baseball, and to determine the best possible mix of projections (separated into rate stats and playing time) as we look ahead to ‘19.

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The Big Board: Mid-Season Update

Today I’ve uploaded the July update for the Big Board. As a reminder for how this works, the projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and FGDepth) have updated with new rest-of-season estimates – I have not done custom curation of the projections, so you may find yourself wanting to tweak things here and there, especially for players that are currently injured or in the midst of breakouts.

If you already bought the Board preseason, I’m providing this update completely free, just go to the original download link you received. Enjoy! Tell your friends!

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The Big Board: Rest-of-Season Update

Your favorite (hopefully) fantasy baseball website is back, everybody. It’s a bit of a short update here, but for years I’ve gotten requests for in-season updates, and so I’ve finally carved out some time to give it a shot. Today I’ve uploaded the May update for the Big Board. We’re about 20% of the way through the season, and through that 20% we’ve already learned some things. Didi Gregorius is great. Chris Davis sucks. And a whole slew of new rookies have emerged onto the scene. With that info, the projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and FGDepth) have updated with new rest-of-season estimates, and so I’ve loaded that all up into the May version of the Big Board.

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Big Board’s Picks: Sultans of Stats

It’s the thick of draft season, and once again this year, members of the Reddit fantasy baseball community are rallying to the /r/SultansOfStats subreddit to sign up for drafts. SoS uses a unique format, in which managers seek to progress season-to-season through a premier-league style system of four divisions. Make your way up to Division 1, and you could even challenge yours truly for the title! To add yet another wrinkle, these leagues use a unique 6×6 roto scoring setup (HR, R, RBI, SB, OBP, OPS for hitters and QS, SO, ERA, WHIP, SV, HD for pitchers). To that end, I’m here today to write about the top players that are value gainers in this format, and the top players that are value losers in this format from the changed categories. All of this analysis was done using the Big Board – if you’re interested in creating your own customized rankings and winning your fantasy leagues (like I did in SoS), check it out! Additionally, I’ll drop them into a few categories, as you’ll see there are certain types of players that are good or bad in SoS.

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Player Valuation Tip #7: Draft Undervalued Players

Tip #1: Know where player values come fromTip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch splitTip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason TradesTip #4: Customize your ProjectionsTip #5: Draft with tiersTip #6: Use the best projection systems Draft week is nearly here! Right around now everyone is poring over their draft prep sheets and coming up with round-by-round targets. Here at the Harper

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Player Valuation Tip #6: Use the best projection systems

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Customize your Projections
Tip #5: Draft with tiers

Entering now into part six of my preseason player valuation series, we arrive at one of the more important decisions of the preseason: deciding which projection system(s) to use. As a testament to how important this is, people have been asking me about this piece for weeks – wait no longer!

 

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Player Valuation Tip #5: Draft with tiers

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Customize your Projections

It may come off as odd to say this, as a purveyor of the best draft tool around, but draft tools can’t do everything. One of the great subtleties to drafting in fantasy baseball is seeing and exploiting tiers within each position. While the Big Board will help you see them, it’s another thing to plan for them and make sure you avoid the biggest dropoffs in each position on draft day.

(If you want to skip the words and get right to the tiers, here they are)

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ZiPS released: Who do they like? Who do they not?

The ATC projection system was released earlier this week on FanGraphs, and much like my post for PECOTA, I wanted to take a look at who they like/dislike. I’ve set the Steamer projection system as my ‘baseline’, as they’re the earliest-released and most-trusted system, and I’ll use the Big Board’s PA and IP in both cases. Let’s do five of each. Here’s what I found (I’ll show the ATC projections below, and you can check them out side-by-side with Steamer at this link):

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