Harper Wallbanger's 2019 Tiers

Harper Wallbanger's 2019 Tiers

It may come off as odd to say this, as a purveyor of the best draft tool around, but draft tools can't do everything. One of the great subtleties to drafting in fantasy baseball is seeing and exploiting tiers within each position. While the Big Board will help you see them, it's another thing to plan for them and make sure you avoid the biggest dropoffs in each position on draft day.

(If you want to skip the words and get right to the tiers, here they are)

Followup on 2018 Big Board Projections

A number of comments yesterday wondered how last year’s prescribed Big Board projections mix performed vs. the rest of the projection systems, so here we go with a quick followup! Let me state right at the top - my projections mix evolves every year, and I recommend you use the newly calculated mix from yesterday’s post, NOT last year’s version. Projections have gone through a tumultuous few years with the introduction of juiced balls and statcast metrics, so our understanding is constantly evolving.

As a reminder, last year’s mix was:

  • Hitter Playing Time: 45% ZiPS, 30% ATC, 25% FGDepth

  • Hitter Rate Stats: 45% Steamer, 30% ATC, 25% ZiPS

  • Pitcher Playing Time: 60% Steamer, 40% Fans

  • Pitcher Rate Stats: 50% Steamer, 30% ZiPS, 20% PECOTA

See yesterday’s post for what all these numbers mean, but the R squared and RMSE values for each category were as follows:

 
Hitters -
 
 
Pitchers -
 
 
 

So how does that rank?

On the hitter side, the correlations are better than any individual system did in 2018 - next best overall was Steamer, at 8% above average, and next best on a rate basis was ATC, at 6% above average. The RMSE is also better than all other systems, with the next best being a tie between several systems at 3%.

On the pitcher side, the correlation for playing time was somewhat poor, but it still manages to be second only to ATC overall, at 14% above average. I cannot overstate how much ATC just blew everyone out of the water on playing time projections last year. On a rate basis, my mix again beat all systems, with ATC next best at 6% above average. The RMSE is again better than all other systems, with the next best being a tie between several systems at 2%.

Evaluating the 2018 Projection Systems

Evaluating the 2018 Projection Systems

As we all hunker down with our spreadsheets in preparation for draft season, it’s time for my favorite yearly tradition - evaluating the projection systems! Forgive the somewhat abbreviated post in comparison to past years’ analyses, but trust that all the same meticulous analysis is here as always. The goals, as always, are to evaluate the best projection systems on a per-category basis for the purposes of fantasy baseball, and to determine the best possible mix of projections (separated into rate stats and playing time) as we look ahead to ‘19.

The 2019 Big Board is here!

The 2019 Big Board is here!

The 2019 Big Board is here! This is the definitive program for creating fully customizable player ranks/values and managing a draft board. Whether you like z-scores, standings gained points, regular points, or you don't even know what those things are, this tool will save you a ton of work and help you to win your fantasy baseball league. Stop relying on the so-called "experts" for fantasy advice - become the expert yourself!