Tip #1: Know where player values come fromTip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch splitTip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason TradesTip #4: Draft with tiersTip #5: Use xFantasy, the xStats projection systemTip #6: Use aging curves for keeper/dynasty leaguesTip #7: Use the best projection systems Draft week is here, or nearly here, and right around now everyone is poring over their […]
Player Valuation Tip #8: Draft Undervalued Players Read Post »
Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Draft with tiers
Tip #5: Use xFantasy, the xStats projection system
Tip #6: Use aging curves for keeper/dynasty leagues
Entering now into part seven of my preseason player valuation series, we arrive at one of the more important decisions of the preseason: deciding which projection system(s) to use. As a testament to how important this is, people have been asking me about this piece for weeks – wait no longer!
Player Valuation Tip #7: Use the best projection systems Read Post »
Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Draft with tiers
Tip #5: Using xFantasy, the xStats projection system
One of the most oft-discussed and most subjectively-answered fantasy baseball topics is “Who do I keep?” Fantasy baseball players intuitively understand the idea of aging, at least qualitatively. Older players are less valuable, given that their performance is more likely to decrease due to both injury and ineffectiveness. But how much is age worth, really?
Player Valuation Tip #6: Using aging curves for dynasty/keeper leagues Read Post »
FanGraphs threw me a real curveball this week, publishing a new projection system on their website that, to my knowledge, has never been publicly available before. Named “Average Total Cost”, or ATC, this system is a composite projection that makes use of historic stats and several other projection sources, weighting each of them category-by-category based upon historical accuracy of each system in each category (described in full detail here by creator Ariel Cohen). Annoyingly, they have not made past years’ projections available, so at this point it’s hard to evaluate how accurate the system is! But, composite systems generally perform quite well, and so I’ve gone ahead and loaded this guy into the newest version of the Big Board and put it through its paces.
Examining ATC, the composite projection system you’ve never heard of Read Post »
Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Draft with tiers
Back in December, I introduced “xFantasy” through a series of blog entries over at the FanGraphs Community blog. At its inception, xFantasy was a system based on xStats that integrated hitters’ xAVG, xOBP, and xISO in order to predict expected fantasy production (HR, R, RBI, SB, AVG). The underlying models are put together into an embedded “Triple Slash Converter” in Part 2. Part 3 compares the predictive value of xFantasy (and therefore xStats) vs. Steamer and historic stats, ultimately finding that for players under 26, xStats are indeed MORE predictive than Steamer! Those three pieces served as a starting point for what would eventually be included in this year’s Big Board as the xFantasy projection system, which has since been covertly expanded to pitchers, translating scFIP, xBACON, xOBA, xK% and xBB% into xFantasy pitcher stats (more info coming soon). Until now, I’ve included it in the Board without much in the way of explanation, so today is my first stab at that, with the hopes of also offering some recommendation of how fantasy players might apply xFantasy in their efforts to prepare for upcoming drafts this spring.
Player Valuation Tip #5: Using xFantasy, the xStats projection system Read Post »
Entering now into part four of my preseason player valuation series, we arrive at one of the more important decisions of the preseason: deciding which projection system(s) to use. Evaluating projection systems is well-trodden ground, as documented by Will Larson over at the Baseball Projection Project. This year, I’ve only yet seen analysis of the 2015 projections over at Beyond the Box Score, and in that case it was not a specifically fantasy-focused analysis. Each of the projection systems changes and iterates their methodology year over year, and so we can always stand to learn more by analyzing the most recent year’s results.
Use the Best Projections (2016) Read Post »
As one of the literally tens of readers that has visited this site this year, you’ve surely downloaded the Big Board by now (or at least the demo). And upon opening the ‘Settings’ box for the first time, you’ve come across this seemingly innocuous box entitled Hitter%:
The Hit/Pitch Split (2016) Read Post »
Mock draft season is here! After sadly missing out (damn you, pacific time zone) on the /r/fantasybaseball mock draft put on this Wednesday for the /r/baseball crossover day, I figured it’d be fun to at least take a look at how everyone did. As always, we’ll look to the Big Board, which will be used to produce every image and bit ‘o analysis that follows. It is the best tool around for finding all the answers to who had the best draft, who drafted the best sleepers, and who just couldn’t resist drafting Blake Snell to piss off /u/fawkesmulder.
Breaking Down the /r/fantasybaseball Mock Draft Read Post »
One of the most frequent topics of discussion at this point in the offseason is trading. Everyone in keeper leagues is trying to shore up their team to get ready for a 2016 title run (or sadly in some cases, getting rid of flotsam following a disaster 2015). xaheyjg Download the free 5×5 version here!
Win your trades with the Trade Calculator Read Post »
A question that tends to pop up around this time of year: “When does fantasy baseball season start?” Of course, we all know that fantasy baseball season never ends, especially for those of us in keeper and dynasty leagues. To wit, Brad Johnson’s “Keeper Questions” thread posted just yesterday at FanGraphs is now sitting at 350 comments and growing. As we all collectively count the days ‘til spring training and opening day, one of the most oft-discussed and most subjectively-answered topics is “Who do I keep?” Fantasy baseball players intuitively understand the idea of aging, at least qualitatively. Older players are less valuable, given that their performance is more likely to decrease due to both injury and ineffectiveness. But how much is age worth, really?
New Feature: Aging Curves (2016) Read Post »
