Big Board

The Big Board: Mid-Season Update

Today I’ve uploaded the July update for the Big Board. As a reminder for how this works, the projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and FGDepth) have updated with new rest-of-season estimates – I have not done custom curation of the projections, so you may find yourself wanting to tweak things here and there, especially for players that are currently injured or in the midst of breakouts.

If you already bought the Board preseason, I’m providing this update completely free, just go to the original download link you received. Enjoy! Tell your friends!

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The Big Board: Rest-of-Season Update

Your favorite (hopefully) fantasy baseball website is back, everybody. It’s a bit of a short update here, but for years I’ve gotten requests for in-season updates, and so I’ve finally carved out some time to give it a shot. Today I’ve uploaded the May update for the Big Board. We’re about 20% of the way through the season, and through that 20% we’ve already learned some things. Didi Gregorius is great. Chris Davis sucks. And a whole slew of new rookies have emerged onto the scene. With that info, the projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, and FGDepth) have updated with new rest-of-season estimates, and so I’ve loaded that all up into the May version of the Big Board.

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Big Board’s Picks: Sultans of Stats

It’s the thick of draft season, and once again this year, members of the Reddit fantasy baseball community are rallying to the /r/SultansOfStats subreddit to sign up for drafts. SoS uses a unique format, in which managers seek to progress season-to-season through a premier-league style system of four divisions. Make your way up to Division 1, and you could even challenge yours truly for the title! To add yet another wrinkle, these leagues use a unique 6×6 roto scoring setup (HR, R, RBI, SB, OBP, OPS for hitters and QS, SO, ERA, WHIP, SV, HD for pitchers). To that end, I’m here today to write about the top players that are value gainers in this format, and the top players that are value losers in this format from the changed categories. All of this analysis was done using the Big Board – if you’re interested in creating your own customized rankings and winning your fantasy leagues (like I did in SoS), check it out! Additionally, I’ll drop them into a few categories, as you’ll see there are certain types of players that are good or bad in SoS.

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Player Valuation Tip #7: Draft Undervalued Players

Tip #1: Know where player values come fromTip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch splitTip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason TradesTip #4: Customize your ProjectionsTip #5: Draft with tiersTip #6: Use the best projection systems Draft week is nearly here! Right around now everyone is poring over their draft prep sheets and coming up with round-by-round targets. Here at the Harper

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Player Valuation Tip #6: Use the best projection systems

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Customize your Projections
Tip #5: Draft with tiers

Entering now into part six of my preseason player valuation series, we arrive at one of the more important decisions of the preseason: deciding which projection system(s) to use. As a testament to how important this is, people have been asking me about this piece for weeks – wait no longer!

 

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Player Valuation Tip #5: Draft with tiers

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades
Tip #4: Customize your Projections

It may come off as odd to say this, as a purveyor of the best draft tool around, but draft tools can’t do everything. One of the great subtleties to drafting in fantasy baseball is seeing and exploiting tiers within each position. While the Big Board will help you see them, it’s another thing to plan for them and make sure you avoid the biggest dropoffs in each position on draft day.

(If you want to skip the words and get right to the tiers, here they are)

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Player Valuation Tip #4: Customize your Projections

Tip #1: Where do player values come from?
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split
Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades

Fantasy baseballers, I come to you today with an admission: I’m a total hypocrite. I am the first person that will tell you that the computer-based projection systems like Steamer, PECOTA, ZiPS, etc will beat a human-curated projection every time. And yet, year after year, I find myself *tinkering*. Changing an ERA/WHIP projection here, increasing a batting average or HR-total there. There are certainly areas where the computer systems fall short, since they don’t know about injuries, can be slow to adjust to real-world depth chart changes, and tend to be skeptical of breakouts. This year, I’ve created a tool that allows me to go about this customization/adjustment process in a much more systematic way: the DIY Projection Tool. Thanks to this handy tool, I’ve been able to integrate all of my preseason research, including injuries, xStats, and depth chart info, into a set of over 300 custom projections (included in this year’s Big Board). But, I’m all about empowering you all to do these things yourself, so what follows here is a comprehensive tutorial in how to build your own custom projections.

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Player Valuation Tip #3: Value your Picks and Make Preseason Trades

Tip #1: Know where player values come from
Tip #2: Set your Hit/Pitch split

Does everyone love the snake draft? No. Is the snake draft necessary because it’s hard to convince people to spend 8 hours on an auction draft? Yes. For those of us in keeper leagues, this time of year brings the additional joyous task of trying to strategize for the upcoming draft. Do you trade away players for picks and rebuild in the draft? Trade away picks for players to strengthen your core team? Try to steal away the most undervalued players in the league before their owners realize what they have? Cut any number of ways, if you start throwing draft picks on the table at some point you’ll arrive at the question… what is a draft pick worth, anyway? Today, we’re taking a look at the Big Board Trade Tool, which can be found for free on this site as the regular 5×5 version, and can also be found within every copy of the Big Board as a fully customized-to-your-league version.

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Player Valuation Tip #2: Set Your Hit/Pitch Split

Tip #1: Know where player values come from

Alright guys and gals. It’s still January, which means we need to hurry up and talk about the nerdiest aspects of fantasy baseball before all the normies come back to baseball world after the Superbowl. Today is part two of the 2018 Big Board Player Valuation Series: “The Hit/Pitch Split”! Readers of “Tip #1” will know that an integral part of player valuation is deciding how to split the values between hitters and pitchers. If you’ve already downloaded the Big Board, and you’ve opened up the ‘Settings’ box for the first time, you’ve come across this seemingly innocuous box entitled Hitter%:

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Player Valuation Tip #1: Know where player values come from

I throw around the terms “z-score”, “SGP”, and “Points” fairly liberally here on the Harper Wallbanger blog. Fantasy baseball loves its jargon. All of these terms describe systems used to assign player values when generating rankings or auction prices. But if you’re not a hardcore spreadsheet wizard, you might be wondering what the differences actually are in how these are calculated. Especially given that the Big Board allows you to choose any of the three systems, it’s time to bring some clarity to this situation! Today is part one of the 2018 Big Board Player Valuation Series: “Where do player values come from?” 

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