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Can 1 Month of Statcast Data Be Used to Evaluate Hitters?

You’ve all done this. Or at least, if you know about Statcast, ‘xStats’, and Baseball Savant, you have – pull up the xStats list, sort by under- or over-performers, and use it to draw broad and sweeping conclusions about your fantasy teams. Which of your fantasy players are poised for quick resurgence, or which of your opponents’ players are prime trade targets? Which guys should you be selling high on, before the bottom drops out? But, in the same way that you can’t really sort the FanGraphs leaderboards by ERA minus FIP and just magically find pitching diamonds in the rough (homer rates complicate things…), this is maybe not the best way to be applying our vast wealth of fancy Statcast-based metrics. I’ve found early-season Statcast data difficult to trust personally, so I decided to dive in and see what exactly we can learn from 1 month of xStats. It turns out there may be something useful here – the method I arrived at after this work would have advised you to buy-in on Jose Ramirez after his rough start to 2019! But we’ll get to that.

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In-Season Updates!

‘Rest of Season’ projections are now available in the 2020 Big Board. Pull up your version of the board and update the projections to pull them in. These will continue to update daily throughout the rest of the season. Hope it helps you to manage this terrible short sample size nightmare season. Happy FAAB-ing/trading!

In-Season Updates! Read Post »

HWB is back

Ladies and gents – the ramp up to 2017 draft season has begun! The first Big Board 2017 ranks go live today, and I present them this year with greater swagger than ever, as the reigning champion of the top division of Reddit’s premier-league style “Sultans of Stats“. In the past year, I’ve also graduated from

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Draft Week is Here!

… And in order to prep for it, I’m bringing together a sort of ‘Draft Day Survival Guide’ for y’all. First, the Player Valuation series all in one place for easy reading: Part 1: The Hit-Pitch SplitPart 2: Draft with TiersPart 3: Value your PicksPart 4: Use the Best ProjectionsPart 5: Target Undervalued Players (IF, OF,

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Target Undervalued Players (2016)

Part 1: The Hit-Pitch SplitPart 2: Draft with TiersPart 3: Value your PicksPart 4: Use the Best Projections As we enter Draft Week, it’s time to really get our stuff together and figure out draft plans. This last player valuation tip is the most obvious, and easiest to do on your own if you have the

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Use the Best Projections (2016)

Entering now into part four of my preseason player valuation series, we arrive at one of the more important decisions of the preseason: deciding which projection system(s) to use. Evaluating projection systems is well-trodden ground, as documented by Will Larson over at the Baseball Projection Project. This year, I’ve only yet seen analysis of the 2015 projections over at Beyond the Box Score, and in that case it was not a specifically fantasy-focused analysis. Each of the projection systems changes and iterates their methodology year over year, and so we can always stand to learn more by analyzing the most recent year’s results.

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Draft with Tiers (2016)

It may come off as odd to say this, as a purveyor of the best draft tool around, but draft tools can’t do everything. One of the great subtleties to drafting in fantasy baseball is seeing and exploiting tiers within each position. While the Big Board will help you see them, it’s another thing to plan for them and make sure you avoid the biggest dropoffs in each position on draft day

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Changes to FG projections…

The @fangraphs depth chart projections, combining ZIPS/Steamer with manual playing time forecasts, are now sortable. http://t.co/4xe4BNj7eE — David Cameron (@DCameronFG) March 6, 2015 Trying to figure out which playing time estimates to trust now… stay tuned. Update 1: Jared’s explanation of where Steamer IP/PA currently come from. @RyanEBrock First, we should have the same GS

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